00:00:00.000 Hello welcome to talkcast. This is not a new look for me
00:00:04.880 I'm just doing a very quick piece of camera, I suppose a little vlog about an article that was in
00:00:12.480 The scientific American a couple of days ago. I've only just read it
00:00:17.520 And I just thought I'd respond off the cuff rather than preparing anything lengthy about it
00:00:22.320 So let's just read through it and see what we think. Okay, so here's the article
00:00:27.880 Here's by a couple of people down here written June 20th 2021, and it's called the delusion of
00:00:40.120 So delusion that all automatically implies some kind of psychological disorder
00:00:47.440 So they're presuming that this is not the the idea of infinite economic growth is
00:00:53.720 Is not something that might be argued for from a scientific standpoint or from an economic standpoint or any kind of objective standpoint
00:01:19.400 These two people happen to be physicists and we can go to the end of the article to find out that
00:01:26.680 one of them happens to be a climate physicist and
00:01:31.160 Works in meteorology and another one is a professor of physics working on
00:01:36.600 Transdisciplinary climate pedagogy, so I guess that means something to the effect of
00:01:42.360 Teaching climate science. Okay, so anyway, whatever the case. They're both physicists
00:01:48.200 The thing is that there is such a thing as expertise and no doubt these two people are
00:01:58.680 How does that qualify them to be experts in economics or financial matters now?
00:02:04.760 I'm not an expert and do not pretend to be an expert in economics or in financial matters
00:02:09.840 But I do recognize that there is such a thing as expertise in this area and
00:02:14.640 So I've taken time to read economists like Thomas Sol to listen to financial experts like you're on Brook and various other people and
00:02:35.040 seem just as silly sometimes as people who have absolutely no
00:02:39.480 Knowledge whatsoever of physics, but send prominent physicists
00:02:43.680 Their ideas for how to improve upon Einstein even though their background might be civil engineering or no signs at all
00:02:51.920 But they think that they can disprove Einstein many physicists know this feeling
00:02:57.880 This is the sense that I got as I read this article it read to me like
00:03:02.840 cranks it read to me kind of like people who know absolutely nothing whatsoever about economics or the arguments for
00:03:09.680 Or infinite economic growth, and I know that the arguments for infinite economic growth are not made very often
00:03:16.280 There's very few of us who do make this even people who are against
00:03:21.680 strange socialist Marxist tribal ideas ancient tribal ideas even those
00:03:31.520 Don't think that something like literally infinite growth is possible that growth can just continue off
00:03:40.640 Okay, but let's just read through okay, I won't spend too long ranting on this
00:03:44.960 But I just thought it'd be informative to read through it paragraph by paragraph and see where the errors are the philosophical
00:03:54.160 So they begin even sustainable technology such as electric vehicles and wind turbines face
00:03:59.960 Unbreachable physical limits and exact grave environmental costs
00:04:07.040 Immediately. Yes, of course. There's going to be physical limits on technologies
00:04:14.000 Grave environmental costs. Well, there's a grave environmental costs
00:04:19.680 Embracing the latest technologies. We need to have technology in order to protect ourselves from the environment a point
00:04:31.040 There is there is pollution out there that is forever trying to get into our waterways
00:04:43.200 Deviruses and chemicals that are not good for us and so that's why we need filtration
00:04:48.720 That's why we need antiseptics. That's why we need antivirals and vaccines
00:04:53.280 They these things constitute pollutants in the environment that are dangerous for living organisms and especially for us
00:05:03.200 We can immediately see here that even the environmentalists are warring amongst themselves. So you know
00:05:11.520 That that they're having a go at people on their own side
00:05:14.240 So if you think that you're doing good by embracing electric vehicles and you think you're doing good by embracing green energy
00:05:23.120 Well, how can you be better? How can you be more pure?
00:05:25.920 The electric vehicle EV has become one of the great modern symbols of a world awakened to the profound
00:05:32.480 Challenges of unsustainability and climate change
00:05:36.160 So much so that we may well imagine that deep thoughts answer today to life the universe and everything might plausibly be
00:05:42.800 But as Douglas Adams would surely have asked if electric vehicles are the answer. What is the question?
00:05:47.760 Okay, I'm kind of I'm kind of thinking at this point that you know, maybe it's this article is written by the fossil fuel industry
00:05:57.600 Solop Howard efficient reliable and affordable, but is it sustainable?
00:06:02.480 EV is powered by renewable energy may help reduce the carbon footprint of transport yet the measure of sustainability is not merely the carbon footprint
00:06:09.840 But the material footprint the aggregate quantity of biomass metal or its construction minerals and fossil fuels used during production and consumption of a product
00:06:18.400 The approximate metric tongue weight of an electric vehicle constitutes materials such as metals including rare earths plastics glass and rubber
00:06:24.640 Therefore a global spike in the demand for EVs would drive an increased demand for each of these minerals end quote
00:06:31.920 Of course, and isn't that a wonderful thing. It's not wonderful that we have the knowledge
00:06:37.120 To turn those otherwise completely useless resources
00:06:45.120 Oil into this amazing thing this this vehicle powered by electricity can accelerate faster than you know
00:06:52.800 Usually combustion vehicles are the same the same kind
00:06:57.360 The idea of sustainable. They mentioned sustainable. They're going to keep mentioning sustainable
00:07:04.080 This idea of sustainability as explained in the beginning of infinity. Now sustainable means in one sense to keep things the same
00:07:13.440 To ensure that change doesn't happen over time. You just sustain something. So it's the same
00:07:19.120 Day after day after day and if you can't do that, then of course if the thing doesn't remain the same day of the day
00:07:32.560 The same day after day after day. We want to make progress. We want to solve our problems
00:07:37.440 The world is not going to remain the same the world is not sustainable
00:07:41.120 So the other meaning of sustainable is of course to provide what something needs to sustain it to keep it going
00:07:49.120 What we need what we need what we humans need is
00:07:54.480 So this is why there's this weird paradox within the
00:08:02.000 Keep things keep things the same the day after day after day
00:08:05.520 But the very thing that we need is not to keep things the same day after day
00:08:10.160 After day and indeed not every other animal by the way
00:08:13.760 Can't remain the same day after day after day because the environment changes the environment necessarily changes the
00:08:24.160 The asteroid will be coming all the equivalent of an asteroid
00:08:28.480 A virus or something else something unknown at the moment
00:08:35.200 But I think these people these these pessimistic
00:08:38.080 Anti-technology people these people who are against the use
00:08:48.400 The extinction of people they think people are bad. They think people are destroying the planet
00:08:56.160 And nothing is further from the truth. We're trying to actually keep the planet going
00:09:02.240 Because the planet is not caring if it had a will at all if you were to if you were to ascribe a will to the planet
00:09:09.040 It's trying to destroy itself and to destroy all of the other species on it after all it's cooling down
00:09:16.320 It's invariably cooling down though the center of the earth is cooling down
00:09:19.680 It's becoming geologically less active over time and meanwhile the sun is getting hotter
00:09:24.080 So it's becoming more and more hostile over time to the life that exists here right now as it always has
00:09:29.680 It has periodically just caused the extinction of massive species over and over again
00:09:35.120 The planet the planet is not a friendly place. We have to make it. We have to eat out our existence on here
00:09:41.280 Okay, let's keep going every stage of the life cycle of any manufactured product exacts environmental costs
00:09:47.360 Habitat destruction biodiversity loss and pollution including carbon emissions from the extraction of war on materials
00:09:55.680 Thus it is the increasing global material footprint that is fundamentally the reason for the twin climate ecological crises
00:10:02.880 Okay, so pausing there. There's not a climate or ecological crisis neither of those things are true
00:10:11.600 Both the climate and ecology is in a better position that it has been throughout the geological history of the earth
00:10:18.400 Because precisely because people are here solving the problems for it
00:10:21.920 There are just so many people in this planet now concerned about the climate but they are doing everything
00:10:26.000 They can in order to sustain the climate at present levels as if as if that's a good thing
00:10:32.480 Knowing full well that the climate has changed over time via natural processes
00:10:38.000 Now that we are here however, we should want to keep the climate in a state that is suitable for us
00:10:45.840 And often to the infinite future. We should hope to have a climate that is rather like our own climate inside of our houses
00:10:56.320 I can turn the temperature down when I want and turn the temperature up when I want
00:10:59.920 Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could do that locally in certain places turn the temperature up where we want to
00:11:06.400 Growing more efficiently and turn the temperature down in places where we'd like to go
00:11:11.040 Snow skiing for example, wouldn't that be wonderful? That's the kind of climate
00:11:14.480 I would like to sustain and to control as for ecological crises
00:11:20.080 When hasn't there been this ecological crises people are solving these things
00:11:25.600 All of those things biodiversity like how much biodiversity loss would there be without people trying to
00:11:36.000 Animals and plants all of these so-called problems, by the way
00:11:40.560 Are simply the result of enacting solutions to far worse problems far worse problems
00:11:49.360 In so far as you think that carbon emissions are a problem the problem
00:11:55.200 That existed prior to any kind of carbon emissions from a man-made factory car
00:12:05.600 That problem was the problem of of surviving without electricity
00:12:15.760 Housing and clothing and all of that stuff the problem of not being able to get from here to there fast enough
00:12:23.280 The problem of not being able to cook your food efficiently the problem of not being able to feed all the people on the planet
00:12:32.560 More or less okay with 99% of the way there. Okay. It used to be the case. You know, whatever
00:12:37.440 I don't know 90% of people were starving then it went to 50%
00:12:42.240 Then it went to 30 and now we've got about I think at most
00:12:46.800 We could find one percent of people on this planet starting if that I think I'm being generous there
00:12:51.760 But along with solving these problem these really important problems
00:12:54.560 The problem of transportation a problem of food the problem of housing the problem of clothing all of which is sold by fossil fuel industry
00:13:02.960 Solve by burning certain fossil fuels of burning oil of burning coal of creating things out of that oil
00:13:10.240 Yes, we create some other problems which are better problems
00:13:14.320 Okay, we've got a little bit of pollution to deal with perhaps. Hey, I don't like breathing in
00:13:18.880 Grimey air. So we've got that problem. Let's try and get that grind that does nasty
00:13:25.200 Nitrous oxides and sulfur dioxide's out of the air great
00:13:28.560 Make the air look nice and clean take the carbon dioxide out to if you want plant more trees
00:13:34.320 But get some more carbon eating bacteria do some carbon sequestration if you want to do that
00:13:40.640 Great that is a minor problem in the scheme of things in the great scheme of things
00:13:45.760 We keep being told that the the great catastrophe is coming
00:13:50.080 The great catastrophe has already been avoided to a large extent
00:13:54.000 The great catastrophe of the past of people of people literally starving to death and freezing to death because
00:14:01.600 There wasn't enough food. There wasn't enough shelter. There wasn't enough clothing. There wasn't enough wealth
00:14:08.320 To change their situation. Okay, let's keep on going
00:14:14.080 And they write the global material footprint has grown in lockstep with the exponentially rising global economy since the industrial revolution
00:14:21.200 Okay, so that's a good thing, but I don't know if they think it's a good thing
00:14:23.280 But it's not wonderful that the that the global economy has risen exponentially
00:14:28.720 This is largely because of egregious consumption egregious
00:14:33.040 The egregious consumption by the super affluent and a socioeconomic system founded on growth without limits
00:14:38.480 Well, here we go. We're going. We're getting a tell here
00:14:42.080 They're automatically they're having a go at the rich to they come for coming for the rich
00:14:47.280 The socio economic system so they want to get rid of the socio economic system. What socio economic capitalism of course
00:14:53.360 What do they want instead? They want communism? Okay, they might not say it out loud. It's a dirty word
00:14:58.640 That's what they want and so they're going to be arguing for
00:15:03.120 They go and to say can we resolve this fundamental conflict between the quest for limitless growth
00:15:08.160 And the consequent environment to all destruction. Okay, the environment is the universe. Okay, let's just get that straight
00:15:15.280 The environment is not merely the forest in the Amazon, which is what people think of or the oceans or the air
00:15:21.280 The environment is the universe. It is limitless
00:15:24.480 Okay, as far as the cosmologist now in the astrophysicist now. It's limitless. There's no bound to it
00:15:29.600 And we can just keep spreading out and in so far as it's not limitless. It's effectively so
00:15:37.280 A trillion years hence might have to worry about some of the
00:15:41.360 Absolute limits of what physics tells us that the universe is going to be like once it expands to a certain size
00:15:48.160 We don't need to worry about it right now. Let them. I'll create the knowledge of what to do then
00:15:56.560 create limitless growth and one reason is because
00:16:04.560 Because a resource isn't a resource until you have the knowledge of how to exploit it a
00:16:09.360 Lot of examples of this exist the one that I've used before is
00:16:16.560 It's an awe that exists in various places around the world in particularly in the northern territory of Australia
00:16:22.960 For millennia that rock sat in the ground completely in doing nothing for anybody ever
00:16:38.160 They figured out that uranium could be used in order to generate heat inside of nuclear reactors
00:16:45.200 And so they created nuclear reactors which used exploited uranium. Where do you find uranium in pitch blend among other places?
00:16:54.000 Now that pitch blend which was hitherto useless. It wasn't a resource previously. It wasn't a resource because no one knew how to use it
00:17:07.840 Extract the uranium out of that ore and then actually
00:17:12.320 Turn it into something useful a resource is only a resource
00:17:16.400 In the context of knowledge which allows you to know that it's a resource
00:17:20.640 How many other bits of the earth otherwise useless at the moment will become resources in the future because
00:17:26.720 Some smart person figures out how to use it much less the rest of the solar system and galaxy and universe
00:17:35.680 Substances out there that if we can properly exploit them make the world better
00:17:42.240 For millions billions and eventually trillions more people. This is what we should want. This is what we should want to do
00:17:50.480 What we'll have is this thing called the universal constructor, which we are to take any atoms at all that you like
00:17:56.080 As long as you've got the elements there and just rearrange them into whatever product you want
00:18:01.520 Okay, perhaps an interstellar spaceship. Let's keep going
00:18:08.320 Technological innovation and efficiency improvements are often cited as pathways to decouple growth in material use from economic growth
00:18:14.800 While technology undoubtedly has a crucial role to play in the transition to a sustainable world
00:18:20.160 It is constrained by fundamental physical principles and pragmatic economic considerations
00:18:24.800 Okay, what do they mean by a transition to a sustainable world a world that remains the same year after year after year
00:18:31.920 I don't think they think it through. I don't think anyone really thinks this through that talks about sustainability
00:18:37.040 The world is not going to sit there for you remaining the same over time
00:18:44.960 That's not sustainable. It's not sustainable for us as I say
00:18:49.280 Not only is the asteroid coming eventually and we better want to have the knowledge in time to deflect it
00:18:57.440 Although some people keep on arguing against rich people like Elon Musk having the technology having the wealth to actually be able to do something like
00:19:04.960 Deflect an asteroid if it was on a collision course with the earth
00:19:13.360 Which really was a minor pandemic could you imagine if something was far worse than COVID-19 far more contagious far more deadly
00:19:21.520 Would we have the wealth and the knowledge to be able to deal with that crisis?
00:19:26.960 We've already expense spent so much wealth already on a relatively minor crisis
00:19:32.000 So I imagine a worse virus imagine something that's not a virus
00:19:35.840 Something that attacks the human body that we either two had no knowledge of whatsoever
00:19:40.880 You know these things have a reason prions are one you know over the years
00:19:45.040 Who knows what might appear in the future? Well the equivalent of an asteroid what if what if it wasn't an asteroid?
00:19:52.240 A astronomers have talked about this that the stray planets might actually have number the planets that orbit around stars for various reasons
00:20:02.160 Or just other things that go flying through the cosmos or just the unknown
00:20:10.320 We have to create knowledge faster. How do we create knowledge faster by investing in research?
00:20:15.920 Okay, this isn't just research funded by the government. It's funded by private enterprise
00:20:22.640 How can they do this as far as possible having cheap energy cheap fuel in order to power the computers of the future?
00:20:30.400 Wealth so that people have the time to be creative
00:20:34.720 Wealth so that we can automate almost everything that either two isn't automated aside from the creative output of people's brains
00:20:42.400 People assembling things in factories should be thinking creatively
00:20:46.000 There should be doing something else everyone driving a vehicle for a job should be free instead
00:20:51.680 To be able to do something creative and I think they all can forget about what the pessimists say out there
00:20:56.960 People who think that not everyone can be creative not everyone can be intelligent not everyone can be a proper rubbish
00:21:02.960 Everyone can and would love to be what absolutely love to be do you think a truck driver would not prefer to be doing something else?
00:21:10.320 They would do you think that someone who's assembling something on an assembly line and a factory wouldn't prefer to be doing something creative
00:21:16.720 Artistic intellectual they would it is a strange ivory tower disconnected way of viewing people
00:21:24.320 I don't know if these people don't actually have a talk to people who are involved in these jobs who talk to
00:21:30.000 Check out cashiers who talk to people in mundane jobs that could be automated
00:21:37.040 They'd rather be doing something else in an extremely wealthy future. They will a future where they're allowed to exploit their creativity a future
00:21:44.400 Where their creativity can help solve their own problems in their own life and the problems for the rest of us as well
00:21:49.680 About how to exploit resources about how to expand out beyond this planet because we have to it's not sustainable living on this planet
00:21:56.880 It's not sustainable at all not only for us for the rest of the animals and plants that you might care about if you care about
00:22:02.320 Panda bears then perhaps in the future we can move the Panda bears somewhere else where it is sustainable to another planet
00:22:08.160 Okay, this is often to the distant future obviously, but we know it's not sustainable to remain here
00:22:13.200 Scientifically, it's not sustainable if we keep things the same here the sun will heat up
00:22:17.760 It will expand it will engulf the earth that will be the end of us
00:22:20.480 We know that's coming and that is just one thing that we know about happening
00:22:24.960 We can almost guarantee there will be something unknown
00:22:28.000 Something we cannot predict that will come from the clear blue sky
00:22:32.960 We need to have a stance of knowledge production and creationate
00:22:37.280 We need to be able to exploit the resources as fast as possible. The only thing that's sustainable the only thing that's sustainable is
00:22:45.120 Creating knowledge faster and faster which requires energy you need energy to power
00:22:53.360 Examples abound the energy efficiency of air plants has improved little for decades since they have been operating close to the theoretical peak efficiency
00:23:02.720 Likewise, there's a hard limit on the efficiency of photovoltaic cells about 35% because the physical properties are semiconductors that constitute them in practice
00:23:11.200 20% for economic and pragmatic reasons the power generation of large wind farms is limited to about one watt per square meter is a simple yet
00:23:18.400 Unavoidable physical consequence of waker fix. The awesome exponential increase and computing power of the past five decades
00:23:24.800 We'll end by about 2025 since it is physically impossible to take transistors on a computer
00:23:29.920 You're roughly five percent of the size of coronavirus much small. Okay
00:23:38.240 Firstly, yes, absolutely. This is an interesting thing about thermodynamics by the way
00:23:44.640 Recently considering you know combustion engines. This is something that you learn about when you do a physics degree
00:23:49.840 Whatever the case the interesting thing is you can't make a combustion engine can't make any engine perfectly 100%
00:23:58.640 Best that you can hopeful as they say there for
00:24:04.960 Well, yeah, well, I think it's about 40% something like that and this is thermodynamics. Okay, so yes, but what's the big deal? Okay? What what do they? What's the concern here that?
00:24:17.920 Physics is somehow got it in for us that because you're not allowed to have a more efficient device that thermodynamics
00:24:25.120 Put a hard limit on these things that somehow rather this is a reason to perhaps stop building so many engines
00:24:37.280 The end of Moore's law. Well, yeah, you can't put more transistors on a computer than
00:24:44.160 Once the transistors get down to, you know, the size of an atom literally once you've got transistors the size of an atom
00:24:50.720 If you're going to go through classical computation unless of course you increase the number of processes, okay?
00:24:56.400 Moore's law hasn't been deviated from that much if you just consider the overall power of the computer perhaps if you just
00:25:02.000 Consider the speed of the process. That's all a moot point. We have a theory of quantum computation
00:25:07.760 We already have an avenue to we have a vision for computers that are
00:25:13.520 Vastly more powerful than any computer that exists now
00:25:16.400 So this pessimism is undermined by David Deutsch's proof of the theoretical possibility of
00:25:23.440 Practically building quantum computers. Okay, we just have to get through the engineering difficulties. Of course if these people will have their way then
00:25:32.400 Powering the research of the future. Perhaps quantum computers might be very energy intensive
00:25:38.080 Goodness knows what will happen then. We'll have people protesting about the building of quantum computers
00:25:42.560 The very thing that might solve the problems of the future might be protested away because people are more concerned that everyone
00:25:49.920 Has exactly the same access to all the resources in the world. Let's get going whether it is principles of classical quantum or solid state
00:25:57.440 Physics or thermodynamics each places different but inexorable constraints on technological solutions
00:26:06.880 Yes, there are things that are physically possible and things that are physically impossible
00:26:11.360 You can't make physically impossible technology big deal
00:26:14.800 Big deal that has no bearing whatsoever on our ability to solve problems and make progress off into the infinite future
00:26:22.400 You can't build a rocket that goes fast in the speed of light
00:26:25.760 But does that mean you can't get anywhere in the galaxy? No in your
00:26:30.880 Rest frame. Okay, if you travel close to the speed of light you can get almost anywhere instantly
00:26:36.480 Of course everyone else will see you take you know hundreds of thousands of years to get from here to there. That's relativity
00:26:41.680 Point is it doesn't really place inexorable constraints on technological solutions a solution is only a solution if it's physically possible
00:26:54.240 Basically physical principles that have allowed incredible technological leaps over the past century also inevitably limit them
00:27:01.520 We might consider that extensive recycling and materials would offset efficiency limits recycling as crucial no
00:27:07.680 It's not however while glass and metals can be recycled almost indefinitely without loss of quality material
00:27:12.960 Citrus paper and plastic can be recycled only a few more times before becoming too degraded
00:27:18.000 Okay, just on this point about recycling recycling
00:27:22.080 People people are overly concerned about waste weight the the idea more waste
00:27:27.680 It's a sign of a healthy society now. We don't want to be living in a polluted city
00:27:32.080 We want the waste a long way away from us buried in the ground or otherwise available for
00:27:39.360 It won't be far into the future all of this will be kind. I hope okay
00:27:44.400 As long as these people don't get their way a century from now once again
00:27:48.320 If we have universal 3-D printers, okay universal constructors of a kind
00:27:53.520 Then they will be able to assemble technology of any kind that you can come up with a program for the object to make including other
00:28:00.320 Universal constructors. So the universal constructor will be something like a 3-D printer
00:28:05.360 That will be able to build any device that you like as long as you've got a program for it
00:28:12.000 To get the universal constructor to build the device
00:28:16.000 Okay, the universal constructor presumably is some kind of robot which is assembling things on a microscopic scale nano scale
00:28:21.680 Perhaps atom by atom it can assemble something like a computer or a quantum computer or a car or a rocket whatever
00:28:28.560 Now when that thing comes to the end of its natural life because physics causes things to degrade unless of course
00:28:35.840 You have universal constructors within those things
00:28:38.160 Constantly repairing them so they never actually need to be thrown away
00:28:41.440 But let's say they need to be thrown away then the universal constructor could be a universal destructor and just change all of that stuff
00:28:48.000 Back into the fundamental elements out of which it was made in the first place
00:28:53.040 And presumably these universal constructors of the future which are physically possible
00:28:59.040 Perhaps you don't even need a universal such thing then we could use these things in our rubbish tips our garbage dumps
00:29:09.520 I thought what otherwise be causing pollution of groundwater or something whatever your environmental concern you have and
00:29:16.160 Change them back into harmless materials that aren't pollutants
00:29:20.560 This can all be fixed with technology the future
00:29:23.760 There are some problems now. They need solutions. The solution is not
00:29:29.600 Let's complain about technology and slow down the rate of progress. That is not the lesson here. Let's keep going
00:29:36.560 Additionally recycling itself may be an energy and materials intensive process
00:29:42.240 They cannot to achieve recycling with 100% efficiency added demand from the imperative for economic growth would necessarily require virgin materials
00:29:49.360 The key point is that efficiency is limited by physics
00:29:51.440 But there is no sufficiency limit on the so on the socio-economic construct of demand
00:29:57.600 Okay, maybe these people are actually on my side, you know arguing against
00:30:01.680 Recycling I don't have anything against recycling if people want to do recycling and make money out of recycling
00:30:07.520 My concern is that quite often higher quality and cheaper products can be made from raw materials without having to worry about recycling them
00:30:16.720 Let's keep going unfortunately the situation is even more dire economic growth is required to be exponential
00:30:22.400 That is the size of the economy must double in a fixed period as reference earlier
00:30:25.840 This has driven a corresponding increase in the material footprint to understand the nature of exponential growth
00:30:31.200 Consider the EV. So post that we have enough easily extractable lithium for the batteries needed to fuel the EV revolution for another 30 years
00:30:38.560 Now we've shown that deep sea mining provides four times the current amount of these minerals
00:30:41.920 Materials are we covered for 120 years? No because the current 10% growth rate in demand for lithium is equivalent to doubling in demand every seven years
00:30:48.880 Which means we would only have enough for 44 years
00:30:51.520 In effect we could we would cause untold perhaps irreversible devastation of marine ecosystems to buy ourselves a few extra years supply of raw materials
00:31:04.160 Applied to lithium that's all that is, you know these people who've argued for centuries that for example is clear and we can do the mathematics
00:31:11.440 Let me show you the finite space of land available on planet earth for growing crops for growing food is fixed
00:31:20.080 It's fixed there's a certain amount of arable land of Nazi it
00:31:22.320 That's that but the population of the earth is increasing exponentially therefore
00:31:26.080 There must come a time when we will run out of arable land therefore run out of food the population will outstrip the food supply
00:31:32.720 This has always been wrong the reason it's been wrong
00:31:37.520 We learn better ways about how to more efficiently produce food more food on smaller patches of land
00:31:44.480 In particular we can do vertical farming. There's just one solution. Now in this case electric vehicles lithium
00:31:51.360 We don't know if we can't make more and more efficient electric vehicles via different processes that these people haven't thought of before
00:31:59.440 Or that lithium can't be found in various places that we didn't know of before
00:32:02.960 We're not going to run out of lithium anytime soon
00:32:05.520 And even if we did there's no physical theory that can put a barrier on us producing batteries
00:32:12.240 That are even better than the lithium ones we have today made of different materials
00:32:15.840 Who knows what these people don't I don't point is you can't prophesy you cannot predict the content of future knowledge
00:32:23.440 But this is this is what sustainability is it to fix my understanding
00:32:26.640 It's thinking that the technology available today is the only technology that's ever going to be available
00:32:31.200 The knowledge available today is the only knowledge that's ever going to be available
00:32:34.160 It's a very parochial way of thinking that the last 10 years of your personal career your expert personal career
00:32:42.240 Which includes reading articles from the scientific American is the entire corpus of human knowledge
00:32:47.440 That's where it started and that's where it finished as if there was no history of progress before that
00:32:51.600 And there'll be no history of progress after this as well of course problems will continue to be solved
00:32:56.880 Okay, let's keep going exponential growth swiftly inevitably swamps anything in finance apply for a virus that finite resources
00:33:02.880 of human population in the context of the planet. It is its physical resource. Okay again, mouthless again
00:33:15.280 Nothing about our knowledge changes about how to use that particular resource
00:33:22.960 We've had predictions for decades now about how it's going to run out at some point in the future
00:33:28.080 But the thing is the amount that we're using seems to be although in some senses increasing in other senses
00:33:34.560 Decreasing because people are transitioning away from it
00:33:36.960 So I went the coal last possibly forever if we all transition away from it
00:33:42.480 So how was that a prediction in the first place that was going to run out at some point in the future?
00:33:47.600 Same as true for oil same as true for every single resource
00:33:52.880 Not necessarily because some scientists comes along and says it's going to run out
00:33:57.680 But because we find something better something more efficient to use in the case of coal a lot of people are now using natural gas
00:34:06.400 But the point is the people find other resources a good reason to change from one resource to another is because it's more efficient and cheaper
00:34:15.520 But right now the Marxist communist collectivist socialist of the world
00:34:19.600 Want us to artificially move from one to another?
00:34:22.320 Why not because that other resource is better because I want to slow down progress
00:34:27.200 They want to impose regulations on people why because they're fixated on control and one way of being fixated on control is
00:34:34.160 But through the lens through the the the the mechanism of environmentalism
00:34:38.960 Environmentalism is a great way of being able to say the catastrophe is coming
00:34:46.240 Otherwise the world is going to end move from this resource to that resource
00:34:49.920 They remain in charge telling you that they're looking after your best interests. They're not
00:34:55.200 They're putting artificial dampeners on growth and wealth creation. Let's get going
00:35:01.440 The inescapable inferences that it is essentially impossible to decouple material use from economic growth
00:35:08.320 We'd win at all 2015 did a careful accounting material footprint including those embedded in international trade for
00:35:13.120 several nations in the 1990 to 2008 period covered by the study no country achieved a plan at the
00:35:18.480 Deliberate economy wide decoupling for a sustained length of time claims by the global north to the contrary
00:35:24.400 Concealed a substantial of showing of its production the associated ecological devastation to the global south
00:35:36.160 Everyone on planet earth has been getting richer over time
00:35:42.160 Are far far fewer than have ever been before people in the most destitute poorest nations of the world
00:35:48.960 People with whom you would not wish to swap places have smartphones
00:35:54.160 They have access to information like never before because people have used resources rare earth minerals and lots of energy in order to
00:36:04.400 Create the technology that gives them access to all of this knowledge
00:36:07.200 Then enables them to improve themselves and potentially to make it into the west to make it into the united states
00:36:13.840 To Canada's great Britain throughout Europe to Australia to various other places where they can improve their lot
00:36:18.640 It's only only by this economic progress that we can hope
00:36:25.040 That improvements will continue that progress will continue
00:36:31.680 The ecology the forests of the world have never been in a better position
00:36:37.600 They've never been in a better position. They are being protected from natural wildfires more than they ever have because people are putting them out
00:36:45.440 And insofar as we are destroying some for farmland
00:36:49.920 The amount of farmland over time that needs to be created is decreasing as I said knowledge makes it more economical
00:36:56.960 To create more food out of a smaller and smaller area and support more and more people
00:37:02.720 I kind of skipping a paragraph and then they say what is sustainability?
00:37:06.400 These observations lead us to a natural minimum condition for sustainability
00:37:10.400 All resource use curves must be simultaneously flatlined and all pollution curves simultaneously extinguished
00:37:18.880 It is this resource perspective that allows us to see why EVs may help offset carbon emissions
00:37:24.080 Yet remain utterly unsustainable under the limit. Let's grow growth paradigm. Okay, well that
00:37:32.320 What this that's not an answer to what sustainability is
00:37:35.360 This idea that all pollution curves must be simultaneously extinct. We have to get rid of all pollution
00:37:44.480 This this is almost a consequence of the second law of thermodynamics. No process can be perfectly efficient
00:37:49.200 There's going to be waste even in the form of heat is heat not a form of pollution
00:37:54.000 Are we artificially heating the planet? Is that what is and that what they concerned about?
00:38:09.600 You try and use only the same amount of resources over time
00:38:13.040 Then that means that you're not improving you're literally flatlining
00:38:16.400 You're not creating anything new which includes knowledge by the way, okay?
00:38:20.480 You're going to just have this we can't remain in stasis
00:38:24.080 Stasis means you're going to go backwards because you're going to encounter a problem
00:38:28.240 That you haven't encountered before and you won't be able to solve it because you won't have enough wealth
00:38:35.360 The only way to prepare for the unknown future is to continually
00:38:40.080 Rapidly create more knowledge and that requires more technology and that requires more wealth
00:38:44.800 And that requires the use of more resources and that requires more energy
00:38:48.960 This is not some crazy theory. This is simple logic. It's simple logic
00:38:54.000 The knowledge economy is fueled by fuel by energy
00:38:59.600 First law of thermodynamics first law of thermodynamics can't get out more energy than what we put in
00:39:04.480 Okay, let's keep going the real question. This is titled. We have argued that the inexorable link between material consumption and GDP
00:39:11.680 Makes the infinite growth paradigm incompatible with sustaining ecological integrity
00:39:22.560 Okay, that's while EVs constitute a partial answer to the climate question
00:39:26.320 We didn't current paradigm. They will only exacerbate the larger anthropocentric crises
00:39:31.200 Connected to unsustainable resource consumption
00:39:35.040 It's not unsustainable. The only thing that's unsustainable is not
00:39:38.160 Consuming resources to reduce the consumption of resources. That's unsustainable
00:39:43.840 That really is unsustainable. That means that human civilization will go backwards
00:39:48.000 That means we'll be unable to deal with the problems of tomorrow
00:39:51.440 We won't have the technology. We won't have the power, the wealth in order to solve the problems of tomorrow
00:40:03.360 The infinite growth paradigm simply means unbounded progress
00:40:06.320 That's what that means. We just need to keep on solving the problems of the future
00:40:10.000 And in order to do that, we have to keep on growing. It's the only option
00:40:13.760 If we have to shrink in numbers people, the number of creative entities that exist on this planet will decrease
00:40:19.600 The number of solutions, therefore, that we're going to be able to produce because each person
00:40:24.240 Only has a finite amount of creative output that they can have that they can produce
00:40:29.680 It's going to reduce in lockstep with that. We need to increase the population
00:40:35.280 We need to increase the amount of resources that we're using
00:40:38.240 We need to increase the amount of energy that we're using overall
00:40:43.760 But we want to spread out from this planet as I keep on saying
00:40:47.040 Now, this might not need to happen for millennia hence
00:40:51.040 But if people succeed at this argument now, there will be no people millennia hence
00:40:58.000 If I seem passionate, it's because this is the argument of our age
00:41:02.320 If these people win because they've come close before, don't mistake it
00:41:06.560 These people came close in the Second World War to winning the argument
00:41:10.240 These people have come close again and again and again
00:41:13.040 It's all the same. It's tribal, collective, tyrannical
00:41:17.440 The ancient tribes that wandered the African wilderness
00:41:21.360 Tribal, replaced by a feudal system, a collective idea
00:41:25.920 Where there was one person at the top and everyone else was more or less equal beneath them
00:41:35.360 And then we had the idea of codifying this kind of idea in Marxist ideas
00:41:43.840 We need some sort of central committee that is in charge
00:41:51.040 A couple of people at the top and everyone at the chiefs, the kings
00:41:56.400 Or the commissars and everyone else equal beneath them
00:42:00.400 We can't go back to this, this has been the to the rumination
00:42:08.800 It's a shame that many of us have to devote our intellectual efforts to defending a thesis
00:42:22.880 For civilisation, for progress, for peace, prosperity, wealth, and technological improvement
00:42:32.320 That's in part what the Second World War was about
00:42:37.360 Those people, we were fighting against wanted stasis
00:42:42.560 And a collet stasis, they call it sustainability now
00:43:08.880 Okay, and by the way, the amount of planet earth that currently we occupy
00:43:14.400 Get in a mirror plane sometime and have a look out the window
00:43:17.120 And you'll see that cities are tiny specks on this
00:43:20.960 The face of this planet, so much of it is just uninhabited
00:43:24.160 And unused, by the way, so many resources yet to be used
00:43:36.640 Well look, now in complaints about pollution going down
00:43:41.360 No problem, but of course, once we get rid of one kind of pollution
00:43:44.960 There'll be another kind of pollution that people complain about
00:43:47.200 You know, in the industrial revolution, air quality was so much worse in London than what it is today
00:43:52.160 And yet we're producing more than ever, so we've gone from one kind of pollution to another kind of pollution
00:43:56.240 The invisible sort of pollution isn't that better
00:44:00.880 And then we'll have a different kind of pollution
00:44:03.840 Whatever the next kind of pollution is though, they'll keep on complaining about it
00:44:08.880 But I need to go back, there's just this one, we forgot to click on this
00:44:12.960 The real question is how do we transition to alternative economic paradigm
00:44:16.560 So that's really what we're getting out here, this scientific American, the scientists
00:44:26.160 It's all been an economic appeal for stasis, for not solving problems
00:44:35.600 Attacking other environmentalists, for not being pure enough in some way
00:44:41.680 That's basically what we're saying, here isn't it
00:44:43.520 What we're saying is that your electric vehicles and your recycling
00:44:48.720 And all that great environmental stuff that you do
00:45:56.400 There was like this very recently this complaint
00:46:37.360 And so it gets thrown out, it gets thrown into the bin
00:46:45.360 Just give away the kebabs at the end of the night
00:46:51.600 Because the local kebab shop doesn't know precisely
00:47:02.880 So they buy a little bit more than what they need
00:47:08.720 Because eventually the people in the community will realise
00:47:11.120 Well they're just giving kebabs away at the end of the day
00:47:13.360 Let's just wait until the end of the day and we'll get a free one
00:47:18.560 No so they purchase a little bit more than what they need
00:47:23.920 Usually just a tiny amount of profit by the way
00:47:26.240 And this is true for almost every single business
00:47:35.040 Okay so the local kebab shop takes in in one day
00:47:51.440 And pay his own personal bills with something like that
00:47:54.320 And maybe the local grocery store it's a bit more than that
00:47:56.640 Maybe Amazon it's a bit more than that again, okay
00:48:02.880 Not that great, although with Amazon of course they've got
00:48:14.800 How much of any particular good they need to produce or to buy
00:48:23.680 They don't want to produce insufficient amounts
00:48:25.760 Because they're not making as much money as they otherwise would have
00:48:32.080 Whatever the case, I'm not going to get involved in
00:48:37.120 About why they're throwing out a couple of tomatoes at the end of the evening
00:48:40.960 Nor my local supermarket about why they're throwing out food on
00:48:44.800 I don't know, I don't have the relevant knowledge
00:48:48.000 That's the whole point, you need to have knowledge in that particular area
00:48:53.040 The finances in area of expertise, economics in area expertise
00:49:01.040 Why people in the general public feel like they have to
00:49:04.400 Insert their opinion into how these businesses should run
00:49:16.080 The number of syringes in there being happens to be the number that it is
00:49:20.080 Or the number of tissues, dirty tissues happens to be what it is
00:49:23.280 You don't know, you've got no clue about what goes on inside that urological surgery
00:49:27.760 The urologist does, the nurses do, they're the relevant experts
00:49:32.320 Anyway, I'm not going to read through this entire thing
00:49:37.280 This is one of the most prestigious scientific journals on the planet
00:49:46.960 Okay, there's to be fair, okay, it's called perspective
00:49:50.800 Why, why, why have we got an opinion piece on economics?
00:49:58.880 For over half a century, worldwide growth and affluence has continuously increased
00:50:11.520 Yes, some people have gotten more wealthy than others
00:50:15.760 Not everyone can get equally what we won't go down that road, okay
00:50:21.280 It's not bad that there is inequality in the world
00:50:25.600 We can imagine situations where the inequality gets way worse
00:50:28.880 We can imagine a world where the richest people
00:50:42.640 The poorest people only own entire islands on those planets
00:50:49.040 And they sail around those planets on their expensive yachts
00:51:00.720 No one dies of disease and catastrophe and whatever
00:51:04.960 Interesting creative better problems of the future
00:51:19.440 Affluence is continually increased resource use
00:51:23.120 Than have been reduced through better technology
00:51:32.400 Like I mean, again, the industrial revolution in London
00:51:44.160 And there continue to be these technological revolutions
00:51:58.640 Which haven't got to the level of technology that we have
00:52:07.680 And then everyone can just worry about the invisible carbon dioxide
00:52:12.000 Okay, fine, we can extract the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere
00:52:22.880 We're definitely not going to read the entire thing
00:52:48.000 In other words, yeah, technology's not good enough
00:52:56.800 And to regulate what you're going to do with your life
00:52:59.920 Okay, we're going to tell you what to do moment to moment
00:53:03.520 However, existing societies, economies and cultures
00:53:08.480 And the structural imperative for growth and competitive market economies
00:53:35.600 We are warning recent scientists warnings as the introduction
00:53:40.160 And as we can see, often, completely and utterly
00:53:44.400 Historically illiterate, economically illiterate
00:53:48.000 They say, yes, physicists are some of the smartest people in the world
00:54:01.520 Stick to finance whenever you comment on physics
00:54:10.480 Sometimes if you don't take an interest in a certain subject
00:54:14.880 I take a casual interest in the economy and finance
00:54:18.640 Because I listen to your own brook amongst other things
00:54:20.400 And I read Thomas Sol and I read various other books
00:54:23.440 But I'm not going to insert myself in a debate about
00:54:31.520 I imagine that there's actually a good debate to be had there
00:54:45.120 Long pieces about things they clearly don't know about
00:54:49.440 Let's just skip all the argument and skip to the conclusion
00:54:52.160 Because this has gone on, this rant has gone on for long enough
00:55:34.960 His family and the barons might have got a little bit more
00:55:38.080 The overwhelming majority of people got the same
00:55:56.960 Everyone gets to pursue their own happiness and their own wealth
00:56:02.080 To the extent that they're willing to work hard
00:56:09.840 Okay, and if they don't want to then they don't get rewarded
00:56:21.040 Okay, I got through university myself by working hard
00:56:50.560 Okay, we don't really have a section called conclusion here
00:56:55.680 How to make the world a better place according to
00:57:02.960 Empower people and strengthen participation in democratic processes
00:57:09.120 Yeah, take a take away the power from the you know centralized national government
00:57:15.680 Design governance institutions will allow for social
00:57:25.840 How about we just stick with democracy an easy way of
00:57:28.560 Removing the rulers and policies that we don't like
00:57:52.400 But in trenching certain leaders and certain ideas
00:57:57.680 Such that they cannot possibly be removed citizen assemblies or juries
00:58:02.480 And whenever you hear something like that you hear people who haven't been elected and therefore cannot be removed by election
00:58:09.840 Next third strengthen equality and redistribution are through suitable taxation policies
00:58:21.680 In other words job guarantees. All right, so you get a guaranteed job
00:58:38.880 This is what happens in North Korea, by the way
00:58:41.840 People have no motivation to do anything because they know
00:58:47.920 They get rewarded exactly the same as the guy sitting next to him
00:58:51.600 They think that everyone's going to try hard in such an economy
00:58:55.040 They're not why would they? They're not going to get any more reward
00:59:10.400 Okay, to ban certain products at the ecological destructive industries
00:59:28.800 Fourth, the transformation of economic systems can be supported with innovative business models
00:59:35.360 You're not going to get an innovative business with a job guarantee
00:59:39.280 Encourage sharing and giving economies based on cooperation
00:59:45.040 I'm sorry, but you know a group of first year university students
00:59:52.880 And finally capacity building knowledge transfer and education including meter and advertising to support local sufficient, okay
1:00:05.200 It's it makes one quite emotional actually to read this. It's just so sad
1:00:11.520 That the great institutions great journals like nature
1:00:17.760 Magazines like the scientific American are going down this road. This is what people are reading
1:00:24.160 When I was growing up, I don't know that this was in the scientific American or nature that went focused on
1:00:30.480 Why why it was like kind of no? I mean, I pay attention to what's said in the physics community
1:00:36.560 And I want to pick on the physics community
1:00:38.560 The astrophysics community and I talk to some of these people
1:00:41.920 Demarcus, they're socialists. They're going. They they love socialist policy. One of the reasons is I guess
1:00:52.960 So they need to be very very pro government. They need to be very very pro
1:00:57.360 The idea that everyone else will support them
1:01:00.720 The scientists so scientists certain scientists have a vested interest in this
1:01:08.000 Desperately need new funding models for science
1:01:10.640 and it's something away from the universities away from the traditional
1:01:14.640 way of government funding this stuff because
1:01:17.840 So long as the the scientists keep getting government funding or almost all their funding comes from government
1:01:23.120 They're going to write articles like this. They're going to try and encourage everyone else to try and let's say indoctrinate
1:01:28.640 Everyone else would prop a gander so that they can continue to
1:01:35.520 Fire arguing that the catastrophe is coming the looming catastrophe is coming number one
1:01:40.640 The only people that can save you from the looming catastrophe are the scientists
1:01:44.640 So you're better give them more money you better make society more egalitarian
1:01:50.880 We need scientists we need scientists to be working on creative stuff creative fundamental things
1:01:56.720 And it's time that we started to really question
1:02:07.360 I'm not going to change the podcast into being ranty about socialism and environmentalism
1:02:14.720 Completely fed up with reading this sort of nonsense from what is supposed to be
1:02:23.840 Scientific magazines in the world and one of the most reputable scientific journals in the world
